Prince Harry is celebrating his 42nd birthday, and while Meghan Markle has made sure the day comes with a warm and fuzzy public tribute, sharing a montage of family moments and telling her husband, “He’s simply the best,” the birthday celebrations are unfolding against a much colder reality inside the Royal Family, because Prince William and Kate Middleton appear to have little interest in reopening the door to the brother who remains estranged from them.

Meghan’s birthday tribute presents a very different picture, filled with affectionate family moments featuring Harry, Prince Archie, Princess Lilibet and their dog Pula, and it comes at a particularly significant moment because the Sussexes have now moved their family back to the UK after years in California, with their children beginning school in Britain.

But Harry’s return to Britain does not appear to have translated into a family reunion with his brother, and that may be the biggest birthday reality check of all.

According to PEOPLE, William and Harry remain estranged, with no direct contact between the brothers, while sources close to William and Kate say the wounds behind the split remain deep. One source described William’s position in remarkably blunt terms: “William’s view is clear — any relationship his father has with Harry or the Sussexes as a family is entirely up to him,” says Russell Myers. “But looking toward the future, he will have no relationship with them, in a working or private capacity whatsoever.”

That is a devastatingly clear message for a birthday that is otherwise being wrapped in affection, particularly because Harry has never completely hidden his desire to repair his relationship with William. The problem is that wanting reconciliation and actually rebuilding trust are two very different things, and those close to William and Kate reportedly believe the damage caused by the years-long feud cannot simply be erased because Harry and Meghan are now living back in Britain.

“It was very hard on them, and I wouldn’t blame William for being cautious,” one close palace source told PEOPLE.

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Royal historian Amanda Foreman offered an equally striking description of where the relationship stands, saying: “At the moment, it has gone from being a hot war to a very, very cold war. But in a cold war situation you still have to turn up to the Olympics.”

And that may be the most revealing part of the entire situation, because Harry can return to his home country, Meghan can post loving birthday tributes, and the family can begin another chapter in Britain, but none of that automatically restores the relationships that were fractured years ago.

The message from William and Kate, at least according to those familiar with their position, appears to be one of distance rather than reconciliation. They are focused on their own future and, as another source put it, “They are shining a light on things that are important to them,” says Ailsa Anderson, the late Queen Elizabeth’s press secretary. “What they don’t want is all this other noise becoming a distraction.”

So while Meghan celebrates Harry publicly with a loving birthday message, the more uncomfortable birthday story is happening behind the scenes: Harry may be back in Britain, but according to the latest reporting, his brother has not come back to him.

For Harry, that may be the hardest birthday reality check of all.