Russia’s oil industry is facing mounting pressure after Ukraine’s military intelligence agency revealed the extent of the damage inflicted on the country’s major refineries, with more than half of the facilities assessed suffering shutdowns or reduced production. The figures paint a difficult picture for Moscow, whose ability to keep fuel flowing at home while maintaining its export commitments is becoming increasingly strained.

According to an assessment by Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries had been knocked out of operation by Ukrainian strikes, while another 12 were operating at reduced capacity. The agency said the combined crude-processing volumes at the affected facilities had fallen by 55.4% compared with the beginning of 2026.

The assessment, which covers the situation as of late September, also put the economic damage caused by Ukrainian precision strikes at more than $23.2 billion. HUR compared that figure with the $26.6 billion it said Russia’s oil-refining sector earned in 2025, offering an indication of the financial pressure Ukraine’s campaign is intended to place on one of Moscow’s important sources of revenue.

Fifteen Refineries Shut Down as Russia Struggles to Keep Fuel Moving

The disruption is particularly serious in Russia’s Volga, Central and Southern federal districts, which HUR identified as the areas facing the most difficult conditions. Among the facilities affected are some of the country’s major refining operations, including Slavneft-YANOS, Kirishinefteorgsintez, the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery and Lukoil’s Permnefteorgsintez.

Together, those five facilities account for approximately 33% of Russia’s total oil-refining capacity, making the disruption significant for an industry that remains central to the country’s economy.

HUR’s assessment also makes clear that Russia has not lost the ability to produce fuel altogether. Refineries located farther from Ukraine have continued operating, allowing Moscow to shift some of the processing burden away from damaged facilities. The agency identified the Omsk and Achinsk refineries, NefteKhimServis, and the Khabarovsk, Mari and Vanino refineries among those still operating.

Their combined processing volume reached 906,000 barrels per day in September, up by 147,000 barrels per day from the beginning of the year. Those facilities accounted for roughly 24% of Russia’s total oil refining during that month.

However, moving production elsewhere does not solve every problem. HUR pointed to shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers, which make it harder to transport petroleum products to the regions where they are needed. The agency also warned that production at some surviving plants could decline in 2027 because maintenance work postponed this year will eventually have to be carried out.

Russia is finding it harder to keep its own fuel supplies steady while still sending petroleum products abroad. With so many refineries out of action or producing less than usual, the remaining plants are being asked to do more than they can comfortably manage. HUR says Moscow has also started bringing in fuel through unclear arrangements that appear designed to get around international sanctions.

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Zelensky Offers Washington a Deal to Pause Refinery Strikes

The latest figures also give added context to Volodymyr Zelensky’s comments earlier in November, when the Ukrainian president outlined circumstances under which Kyiv could stop targeting Russian oil refineries.

His proposal was tied directly to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. “We said that if you want us not to attack Russia’s refineries, they must not attack our energy system,” Zelensky said.

He also offered Washington another option, suggesting that the United States could provide Ukraine with a package of Patriot air defense missiles for a month, with Kyiv willing to pay for the weapons rather than receive them as military assistance.

“Give us this package. We need the package, and you can give us for one month, not for three months,” Zelensky said. “For one month, if you need us not to attack their refineries one month, give me Patriots for one month.”

His remarks put the refinery campaign into the wider debate over how Ukraine can protect its own energy system while maintaining pressure on Russia’s ability to finance and sustain its war. For Moscow, the figures published by HUR suggest that the damage is already substantial, although the surviving refineries and increased output elsewhere show that Russia still has ways to adapt.

The central question now is how long those alternatives can compensate for the facilities that have been put out of operation, particularly if maintenance delays, transportation problems and domestic fuel requirements begin placing further demands on the remaining plants.