For months, President Donald Trump has made the Republican Party’s 2028 succession question into a kind of political reality show.
He has publicly hinted at Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible successors, but has not told either one where they really stand.
But things may finally be shifting. In private, Trump has started to give Republicans a clearer sign that he sees Vance as the one to carry the movement forward.
The Washington Post reported that Trump recently told donors in the Oval Office, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD.”
Trump later refused to make that private statement an official endorsement. When reporters asked if Vance had his support, Trump said no and explained it was “way too early” to decide.
Still, in presidential politics, signals often matter long before any official announcements.
For Rubio, these signals are becoming more uncomfortable. After working hard to rebuild his standing with Trump, gaining influence in the administration, and sparking some 2028 excitement, he may be realizing that Trump sees him as a valuable partner, but not necessarily as his successor.
Donald Trump Is Sending Stronger 2028 Signals Toward JD Vance
Trump has not officially chosen Vance, and people close to him warn that nothing is final. Several advisers told The Washington Post that Trump could still change his mind and keeps asking those around him whether they prefer Vance or Rubio.
That uncertainty is important. But what Trump says to donors in private also matters.
Trump’s reported comment that Republicans “need to elect JD” is a big shift from the public competition he encouraged for months. Earlier this year, he even asked crowds whether they preferred Vance or Rubio and called them a possible “dream team.”
Vance also has an advantage that Rubio cannot easily match: he is already Trump’s vice president and is deeply involved in the MAGA movement’s political structure.
The Post reported that Vance is closely connected to the younger MAGA coalition that helped bring Trump back to office. Rubio, on the other hand, has traditionally had more support from the Republican donor base that existed before Trump changed the party.
Vance has also spent a lot of time fundraising and building relationships across the Republican political network.
Conservative radio host Steve Deace summed up the case for Vance, saying the vice president is “more directly tied to Trump’s base and carrying on that legacy.”
In the end, that connection could matter more than experience, foreign-policy background, or mainstream appeal. Trump is not just picking a candidate. He is deciding who will carry on Trumpism.
Marco Rubio’s 2028 Rise Is Becoming an Awkward Public Demotion
This is especially tough for Rubio, since his political comeback has been so impressive.
Ten years after Trump defeated Rubio in their bitter 2016 primary fight, the former Florida senator has become one of the most powerful people in Trump’s second administration. He is now secretary of state and plays a key role in national security.
Rubio’s 2028 stock surged after a White House briefing put him back in the national spotlight. Republican strategist Josh Holmes suggested Rubio was starting to look every bit like a presidential candidate, and Rod Dreher, despite his long support for Vance, admitted Rubio was becoming difficult to ignore.
For a while, there was real “Marcomentum.” Now, Trump seems to be quietly limiting it. That is where the embarrassment comes in.
Rubio has spent years fixing his relationship with Trump, showing loyalty, defending the administration, and becoming one of its best communicators. But when Trump privately talked about who should be elected in 2028, the name he reportedly mentioned was JD Vance.
Rubio may now find himself in the odd spot of being praised by Trump, but also being pushed toward accepting the No. 2 spot behind someone who only joined the Senate in 2023.
Politically, that is not a rejection. But for someone who has already run for president, it is not much of a promotion.
Rubio has often tried to ease the rivalry. He has said that if the current VP runs, Vance will be the nominee and Rubio would be one of the first to support him.
That statement could end up being more than just polite diplomacy.
JD Vance May Be Trump’s Best Bet to Keep MAGA United
There is another reason Trump might choose Vance: the Republican Party could split quickly after Trump leaves. The divisions are already there.
Vance represents the nationalist, populist, and more skeptical-of-foreign-intervention side of the Republican coalition. Rubio, by contrast, has always been more at home with the Reagan-era Republican approach, especially on alliances, national security, and America’s role abroad.
These differences have shown up in how the administration has handled Iran and the broader Middle East.
Former diplomat Dan Fried said the talk about ideological differences between the two is not just speculation. He pointed out that Rubio works within the traditional Reagan view of the free world, while Vance sees foreign policy very differently.
Reuters also reported that Vance’s doubts about long-term military involvement have given him a unique place in Trump’s coalition, while Rubio has taken a more hawkish stance.
Those divisions could become much bigger in an open 2028 Republican primary. If Rubio runs, he could attract traditional Republican donors, national-security conservatives, and voters who want a more traditional presidential style. Vance, meanwhile, could win over the populist MAGA group that wants to keep Trump’s changes to the GOP.
Trump has spent ten years keeping these groups together through his own personality. Vance might be the best candidate to convince core MAGA voters that the party is not going backward after Trump leaves.
And Rubio might be the one best able to keep everyone else from leaving. That leads to an obvious solution.
A JD Vance–Marco Rubio Ticket Could Give Republicans the Best of Both Worlds
Trump has often suggested a ticket with both men. In June, he praised Vance and Rubio as a team and said that running together would make them very hard to beat.
The political logic is clear. Having Vance at the top would reassure Trump’s strongest supporters that the MAGA movement is continuing, not going back to the old Republican establishment.
Rubio could help broaden the ticket. He brings much more foreign-policy experience, years of national political exposure, strong communication skills, and a different style. Rubio could reassure Republicans who like Trump’s policies but want a less confrontational approach after eight years of Trump.
Even Republican activists who prefer Vance have considered this pairing. Deace told The Washington Post that he would choose Vance-Rubio.
Reuters also reported that Rubio has said he would not run against Vance if the vice president runs, and people close to Rubio say he could be comfortable as Vance’s running mate.
That would make Trump’s succession contest much more orderly. Instead of Vance and Rubio fighting each other for a year, Republicans could have both on the same ticket.
Trump could keep the MAGA movement together. Rubio could help expand its reach.
Did Donald Trump Really Leave Marco Rubio on a Plane During a Missile Threat?
Then there is the remarkable airplane story, which would be politically awkward for Rubio even without the 2028 rumors.
During Trump’s July trip to the NATO summit in Ankara, security officials worried that Air Force One could be targeted by a shoulder-fired missile.
The Secret Service thought the threat was serious enough to secretly move Trump from Air Force One to a smaller C-32A military jet. Trump and a few aides were quietly taken in a catering vehicle before leaving Turkey on the alternate plane.
Air Force One left separately. Marco Rubio was still on board. So was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with White House staff and journalists traveling with the president.
That naturally raises a big question: Did Trump leave his secretary of state, and possible 2028 rival to Vance, on the plane being used as a decoy?
The simple answer is that Rubio stayed on Air Force One after Trump was moved. But the more dramatic version of the story needs some context.
A senior U.S. official told the Associated Press that Rubio knew about the switch and the threat. The official could not explain why Rubio stayed on the plane. Security for the president is also much stricter than for Cabinet members.
Reuters reported that while the Secret Service saw the threat as real and urgent, another source said there was no clear plan for an attack. That was one reason the planes were allowed to leave.
Trump has said he just followed instructions from the Secret Service and military. So there is no evidence that Trump personally put Rubio in danger, or that the incident had anything to do with the 2028 race.
Still, the political symbolism is almost too perfect. Trump quietly leaves on another plane with a few aides. Rubio stays behind.
And just weeks later, the public learns that Trump privately told donors they need to elect JD Vance. For Rubio, the symbolism could hardly be harsher.
Trump May Have Found His 2028 Strategy
Nothing is set in stone. Trump says it is too soon for an endorsement, his advisers say he could still change his mind, and the November midterms could flip the whole Republican succession race.
Rubio is also far from done politically. Trump still praises him, and Rubio is one of the administration’s key officials. But the pecking order is slowly becoming clearer.
Vance is looking more and more like the heir. Rubio is starting to look more like the person Trump wants next to the heir.
And that difference may be the hardest part for Marco Rubio: after working his way back from his 2016 defeat by Trump, he could still end up on the 2028 Republican ticket — just one spot lower than he once hoped.
