The 2022 midterm elections did not produce a red wave. Instead, President Joe Biden is now inching closer to a 2024 run.
The Democratic politician feels vindicated by the results. While some of the outcomes are not yet final, the Democratic Party is doing much better than expected.
Democrats are slightly favored to keep the US Senate. While the House is likely gone, some experts believe it is still in play. Moreover, major organizations have refrained from making a call.
With low approval ratings, rising inflation, and soaring gas prices, it had looked like Democrats were going to have a bad night. However, a laser focus on the fight for democracy and abortion rights has proven solid enough to deliver some great results for left-leaning candidates.
Since Democrats have won the expectation game, Biden is better positioned to run for reelection if he chooses to. Here are three reasons why Biden 2024 is no longer an unrealistic proposition.
The Midwest firewall holds
Democratic governors won in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Biden can keep those three states in 2024, his path to victory will be much clearer. John Fetterman has even defeated Mehmet Oz, a candidate backed by former President Donald Trump.
Those states played crucial roles in Barack Obama‘s victories in 2008 and 2012. They also helped elect Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Four years later, they swung back to the Democratic column. According to reports, Trump was the angriest about losing the Senate seat in Pennsylvania last night, signaling the importance of the Midwest region.
Moreover, Biden did campaign in those states this year. This proves that he was necessarily a drag for the Democratic ticket, as suggested by the national media.
Trump is weaker
The Republican politician remains the most prominent personality in his party. However, he is no longer the top asset. Many conservatives believe with his behavior; he caused the party to lose some winnable seats.
The former reality TV star prefers loyalty to electability. On different occasions, he has backed candidates that were nice to him personally but bad for the party.
With the rise of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump might feel the need to be more unpredictable than usual to regain his footing.
The lack of discipline is likely to play in Biden’s favor. Interestingly, the GOP might not be able to win the presidency with Trump, but the party is likely to lose even more without his full support.
The dichotomy means that Trump is not going to leave the stage anytime soon. Moreover, if he is forced out, he is unlikely to do it gracefully, which may hurt his party’s chances.
Democracy matters
Exit polls show that voters had democracy on their minds while casting their ballots. While many thought it was a mistake, Biden made the issue a central theme of his campaigning.
Since Trump is unlikely to stay silent, democracy could remain potent for a few more election cycles. Just like “Soul of the Nation” in 2020, the concept might not be popular with pundits, but voters seem to feel differently.
The media tends to focus on the economy, crime, and immigration. However, Americans do have other things in mind from time to time.
The old metrics like approval ratings and inflation have made way for more partisanship. If Biden can efficiently tie the survival of democracy to his party in 2024, he might be hard to stop.
Tuesday has confirmed that the political demise of Biden was greatly exaggerated.
