Kyrsten Sinema, a Senator from Arizona, is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent. Her big announcement was accompanied by a real media blitz.
Some political observers have called Sinema’s conversion a significant change in Washington. However, the details reveal something entirely different.
At 46, Sinema is one of the most important players in the US Senate. She was involved in all the bipartisan deals that President Joe Biden has lined up in his first term in office.
Despite this success, she has never really found her place in the Democratic caucus that continues to veer left on some issues like taxes, the minimum wage, and the so-called filibuster.
Progressive activists kept pushing for the colorful politician to move in their direction. However, she never listened. The left responded with a primary threat.
In the past few months, US Representative Ruben Gallego has emerged as a serious potential challenger from the left.
Moreover, polls after polls have suggested that Sinema was not in a position to win a primary race. While incumbency would make it difficult to beat her in a general election, it was a different story in a primary.
Sensing that she was no longer in control of her political future at home, Sinema, who is up for reelection in November 2024, did the only thing that she could do to save her seat.
It needs to be noted that she denied that political calculation was involved. She told CNN’s Jake Tapper: “Removing myself from the partisan structure – not only is it true to who I am and how I operate, but I also think it’ll provide a place of belonging for many folks across the state and the country, who also are tired of the partisanship.”
By changing her political affiliation, Sinema puts Democrats in front of an impossible choice. They can run a candidate in a three-way race and risk handing the Senate seat to a Republican like Kari Lake, Blake Masters, or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, or hold their nose and back her for reelection.
The aforementioned potential candidates are all aligned with former President Donald Trump‘s MAGA movement.
It is a very risky bet for all involved, and the Democratic Party has less than two years to solve the equation. Independent or not, Sinema is going to more or less caucus with the Democrats and give them a 51-49 advantage in the Senate.
Why would Biden’s party risk losing a seat when they have 21 others to defend in 2024, including some in red states where Trump won by big margins like West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio?
Sinema is not the first Senator to go independent in order to save a seat. Joe Lieberman did the same thing in Connecticut in 2006 after losing a primary. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska successfully launched a write-in campaign in 2010.
While it is not certain that all of this will work in her favor, Sinema had little choice either.
